My State-by-State Picks

Since the election’s tomorrow, let me go ahead and put some solid predictions on the line. It looks like the election will go for Obama at this point. Here’s a map of my state-by-state predictions. Overall I have it at a reasonably close race with some last-minute surprises in McCain’s favor. Obama 297 – 241…

Couldn’t Have Happened to a Better Group of People

A headline: As Verasun (VSE) Goes Chapter 11, The Ethanol Industry Faces Serial Failures. Best goddamned news I’ve heard all day. Good riddance. Those leeches deserve their fate. If you have a competitive non-oil fuel source, I’m more than happy to buy it. But when you have a fuel source that not only is not…

Interesting Poll Skew Puzzle

FiveThirtyEight.com notes an interesting poll effect: cellphones. Apparently polls that include cellphone calls in their results show much wider margins for Obama: an average lead of 9.4 for polls that include cellphone users, 5.1 for those that don’t. Nate Silver reports that in personal communication with pollsters they have assured him that it’s easier to…